2022–now

AI Present

Demos consolidate; evals remain

AI pair programming changed how code is typed faster than how it is reviewed. Agent frameworks and standalone vector stores sorted into demos versus durable plumbing; mid-market RAG folded back into Postgres. The permanent layer is familiar: evals that gate deploys, model routing for cost, tool protocols instead of plugin snowflakes, and humans who own production. Autopilot rewrites and vibe-shipped auth middleware are still big-bang migrations with better slides — and a longer on-call.

27 technologies in this era

Platform · 2023–now

Postgres + pgvector

Stuck

Embeddings back in the database you already run. The default for mid-market RAG — not the quiet alternative.

Practice · 2021–now

AI pair programming

Stuck

Autocomplete that understands the file — now table stakes. Generation outran review capacity; ownership is the bottleneck.

Practice · 2023–now

LLM eval pipelines

Stuck

Regression tests for nondeterministic models that actually fail the build. The unglamorous CI that separates demos from products.

Practice · 2024–now

AI review bottleneck

Stuck

Copilot ships PRs faster than teams can review. Generation outran ownership and security review — the real 2026 invoice.

Architecture · 2024–now

Model routing / tiered inference

Stuck

Cheap model drafts; frontier model escalates. The boring cost-control layer that survived the agent hype.

Practice · 2023–now

RAG as default architecture

Mutated

Retrieval-augmented generation as the answer to every knowledge problem — then "just stuff the window" as the counter-fad. Often right; often Postgres with pgvector would suffice.

$ Teams stood up vector pipelines, chunking strategies, and rerankers before asking if fine-tuning or a SQL query would answer the question. Retrieval infra became the product.

Practice · 2024–now

AI stack consolidation

Mutated

Seventeen LLM wrappers to three vendors, one observability bill, and framework repos going read-only. Hype cycle entering boring procurement.

Practice · 2023–now

Agent ops / LLM observability

Stuck

Tracing, cost caps, and prompt versioning for production LLM features — mostly constrained tool loops, not autonomous agents. Datadog for tokens.

Practice · 2022–2025

Prompt engineering

Mutated

Craft the magic string until the model behaves. Job title of 2023; table-stakes skill of 2026.

Practice · 2023–now

Local inference

Stuck

Run the model on your laptop or rack. Privacy, cost control, and the refusal to send every token to a vendor.

Architecture · 2024–now

Context / tool protocols

Stuck

Standard ways for models to talk to tools and data — MCP-class protocols instead of one-off plugin snowflakes.

Framework · 2023–now

LLM app frameworks

Mutated

LangChain-class glue gave way to vendor SDKs and thin wrappers. The durable pieces are boring: evals, retrieval, and product UX.

Platform · 2022–now

Vector DB gold rush

Mutated

Specialized embedding stores sold as the default. Mid-market folded back into Postgres — after the vendor tour.

Framework · 2023–now

LLM orchestration frameworks

Faded

Chains, tools, memory, and agents as a framework — LangChain-class glue sold as architecture. By 2026: LangChain-fatigue and thinner SDKs.

$ Teams adopted chain/agent frameworks before they had a single reliable tool call. Abstraction layers multiplied while prompt quality stayed flat.

Practice · 2023–2025

Fine-tuning as default

Mutated

When in doubt, fine-tune. Often the expensive answer to a retrieval or eval problem — mostly shelved as a default by 2025.

$ Fine-tune jobs and GPU bills for problems that prompt + retrieval would have solved. Model zoos became the new snowflake servers.

Practice · 2023–now

Embed everything

Costly fad

If it is text, vectorize it. Semantic search cosplay for problems that needed a better filter.

$ Embedding pipelines for tickets, PDFs, Slack, and the cafeteria menu — then nobody measured retrieval quality. Vector bills and reindex jobs became the product.

Practice · 2023–now

Shadow AI / paste-into-ChatGPT

Costly fad

Prod data into consumer chat because the approved tool is slow. GDPR with better autocomplete.

$ Employees routed tickets, logs, and customer PII through consumer chat before InfoSec finished procurement. Compliance scramble followed the demos.

Practice · 2024–now

Long-context cargo cult

Costly fad

Million-token windows as a substitute for retrieval design. Stuffing PDFs until the model shrugs.

$ "Just put it in the window" replaced chunking, RAG, and information architecture until token bills and lost-in-the-middle hallucinations arrived.

Practice · 2024–now

Reasoning models for grep tasks

Costly fad

o1-class deliberation for tickets that needed a filter. Resume-driven inference.

$ Thinking tokens burned on problems a SQL query and a unit test would settle. Latency and invoices grew; correctness did not.

Practice · 2023–now

Prompt injection as afterthought

Costly fad

Ship the chatbot, bolt on security later — OWASP's new category, same old afterthought.

$ Customer-facing chatbots shipped with tool access and "security in phase two." Indirect injection via docs and tickets became the new XSS.

Practice · 2024–now

AI-generated test theater

Costly fad

Coverage theater with a chat box. Tests that mirror the bug and never catch it.

$ LLMs wrote tests that boosted coverage and asserted nothing. Green CI, false confidence — eval theater's cousin in the test suite.

Practice · 2023–now

AI will rewrite the codebase

Costly fad

Big-bang rewrite, now with a chatbot — then with agents. Same failure mode; prettier slides.

$ Exec decks promised autonomous migrations "by next quarter," then rebranded as "agentic modernization." Teams that skipped tests, ownership, and incremental strangler patterns bought expensive demos and fragile diffs.

Framework · 2023–2025

Multi-agent orchestration hype

Costly fad

LangGraph, CrewAI, AutoGPT cosplay — agents delegating to agents for tasks one function call could do. Hype peaked; backlash stuck.

$ Autonomous agent swarms burned API budgets on coordination loops that a single prompt and a cron job would have handled. Debugging "which agent lied" became the new on-call sport.

Practice · 2023–2024

AutoGPT-class autonomous agents

Costly fad

Give the model a goal and a credit card. Viral in 2023; quietly shelved when the loop never stopped spending.

$ Open-ended agent loops burned API credits chasing goals nobody specified well enough to finish. Demo videos outpaced production deployments by orders of magnitude.

Practice · 2024–now

Eval theater

Costly fad

LLM evals as slideware — metrics that look scientific and never gate a deploy. The foil to real eval pipelines in CI.

$ Dashboards of vibe-check scores that never blocked a release. Green charts for leadership; prod still hallucinated.

Practice · 2023–now

Chatbot wrapper as product

Costly fad

Slap an LLM on the homepage and call it AI-native — "we have an app now," 2010 edition.

$ Homepage chat boxes billed as AI-native platforms while the roadmap stayed FAQ search with a spinner. Acquisition decks outpaced retention.

Practice · 2024–now

Vibe coding

Costly fad

Accept AI output on feel, skip the diff, hope tests exist. Fast demos; CVEs and nobody owns the middleware.

$ Ship-to-prod without reading the diff became a flex until incidents revealed nobody knew which prompt wrote the auth middleware. Review debt arrived in one weekend demo.

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Opinionated history · not a ranking